Cybertruck convinced me that cars die by nameplate.

"Grindintosecond" (Grindintosecond) 11/26/2019 at 13:12 • Filed to: None

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If Tesla built the Flex, it would be a monsterous hit. A polarizing company can only make a polarizing design sell. With 200,000+ orders so far for Cybertruck, that’s about 2/3 of the Flex’s total US sales and they haven’t started production. Some will mention Cadillacs folded paper designs but to be honest, they have SOME history of shaking things up once every forty years.

Giant t ailfins. Folded creased metal edges. ( We have to wait twenty more years for their next event.) But overall they never cracked the polarizing “ acceptance of something different” success. Looking further, the largest US seller of trucks said nobody’s gonna buy Cybertruck because of that design. That’s where we bet against what the old people, who judge by first sight, say about new things.

We forget a huge element of sales. People who don’t buy Ram and Ford and Chevy will buy this. People who buy Tacoma’s are finding their segment suddenly competed with by those brands and the Taco needs more reasons to justify itself. If buyers d on’t whe el in the mountains too deeply , they could very well step up to interface with Cybertruck. Cybertruck just created the new segment like ‘alternative’ music made its own genre at the mall record stores. It’s still ‘rock’ but right now, it’s wholly different.

Tesla is mainly bought to be different. A sideline pseudo-hipster purchase, if you will. Plus, sometimes the performance and capability are just good enough or better than to warrant more consideration like how the S can road trip across country and fill up in 20 minutes, only twice the time of a regular stop for gas and a snack . E cars are suddenly for real and a threat.

Cybertruck looks odd, but those angles and creases are exactly what it needed. They will never break into a market saturated with bro-enhanced mid-s ized and full-sized trucks with similar design cues. So Cybertruck made its own niche, which the Ridgeline, what 98% of petrol users really should be buying, is failing at doing. It’s not even including a single bro-cue or attention getting style point in design. It’s appeal is to a shrinking segment who soon retires without savings.

As the Ridgeline can’t sell, is d esigned too safe, a nd the safe people that buy it are older or way too self conservative, we find e veryone in this world under 45 is juiced to the Moon to put anything on social media to gain approval for what they do. Nobody will ‘like’ your ridgeline world, and that segment isn’t concerned with retirement investing, just buying cool things for online cool points. Cybertruck is here to fulfill their quest for globally accepted cool points. Sho uld those things matter at all in the end is anyone’s guess.

So, the Flex. It’s dead this year. I’m betting on Tesla waiting for it to go before making some sort of electric Roadmaster of the future. And suddenly full-sized family wagons will be Elon Christ’s greatest invention and will sell a million of them . Cybertrucks new suit is cool only because it’s Tesla. Just like Yeezy Boost shoes are only cool to kids because they’re Kanye infused.

Nobody else could pull this off but Tesla. Cybertruck is the real deal. Cybertruck is gonna eat half of Detroit for dinner . Cybertruck don’t give a shit.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Grindintosecond 11/26/2019 at 13:17

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I’m all for electric full sized family wagons. The VW Vizzzzion is a good start. 

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > Grindintosecond 11/26/2019 at 13:18

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See also:

versus

Grindintosecond > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 11/26/2019 at 13:20

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Crossover stuff been done by Tesla already. Talking wagon/van movers. 

sm70- why not Duesenberg? > Grindintosecond 11/26/2019 at 13:21

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With 200,000+ orders so far for Cybertruck, that’s about 2/3 of the Flex’s total US sales and they haven’t started production.

Aren’t those 200,000+ “orders” just $100 fully-refundable build slot deposits? That’s way different than having effectively pre-sold 200,000 cars in my mind.

Ash78, voting early and often > Grindintosecond 11/26/2019 at 13:23

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People often point to Tesla’s success as proof that detractors are wrong. That’s a fallacy simply because it ignores how much BETTER Tesla COULD be doing if they weren’t so polar about things. Sure, you could say that Tesla only wants as much demand as their production could handle — that’s fair.

But I’ve watched enough Shark Tank to know that the world expects you to sell as much as you possibly can, then worry about production and funding later (only half true).

Take: The Tesla Truck COULD have been a mainstream alternative to regular trucks. Rivian is disruptive, but there are certain elements that simply have to be a part of the design — somewhat for function, but somewhat for familiarity.

As a niche product, the Cybertruck is fine. Whatever. But Tesla is not helping their reputation with it at all. It’s almost like they’re trying to be controversial because they don’t want the hassle of meeting high demand levels.

Musk continues to operate three steps ahead of the real world, which is like the mark of an insane genius with an unchecked ego. Please get a CEO. Soon.

Grindintosecond > sm70- why not Duesenberg? 11/26/2019 at 13:23

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Well see. How many preorders for the S or 3 converted to full sales?

Grindintosecond > Ash78, voting early and often 11/26/2019 at 13:30

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Areed. My real point in all this was how this is shaping up to be a weird but real hit, being that different. And the Flex flopped around and died like a fish out of water, and it was different. But the nameplate drives this on both ends. A boring company makes someth ing dofferent , and an exciting company makes something different. Whose gonna sell better ? I believe this is the answer . Elon will eventually figure out how to clone himself to fill the CEO position.

Textured Soy Protein > sm70- why not Duesenberg? 11/26/2019 at 13:30

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You are correct.

Ash78, voting early and often > Grindintosecond 11/26/2019 at 13:32

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Even past the Flex, look at the Freestyle, Chrysler Pacifica, and Mercedes R-Class. Today they’re all just 3-row crossovers, basically the meat of the market . When they were introduced, that segment didn’t exist . And they all died.

I’m glad the Flex held on as long as it did.

Grindintosecond > Ash78, voting early and often 11/26/2019 at 13:34

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Yeah me too. We’re real happy with ours.

TheTurbochargedSquirrel > sm70- why not Duesenberg? 11/26/2019 at 13:40

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I know several people who put a deposit on a Model 3 right after it was announced.

None of them ended up buying a Model 3.

I would guess that those 200k deposits translate to 10k sales. 20k   if they actually offer the cheaper models from the start.

Derpwagon > Grindintosecond 11/26/2019 at 13:49

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All I’m gonna say is that I’m 33 and I like the Ridgeline. 

Censored > Grindintosecond 11/26/2019 at 14:05

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This is why the ridgeline doesn’t sell....

That’s not much better than listed for half tons, and folks that I know that have them say they get between 18 and 20 realistically, which is right in half tons mileage. So why sacri fice space, capa bility, ease of maintenance etc... for a vehicle that costs the same as a half ton, doesn't get better milage and isn't going to hold value the same as a half ton.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Grindintosecond 11/26/2019 at 14:08

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It’s not 200k orders, it’s 200k fully refundable $100 “deposits”, for a car that likely won’t be delivered until 2022. I’d be surprised if more than a quarter of these deposits actually turn into real sales.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > TheTurbochargedSquirrel 11/26/2019 at 14:09

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And that was $1000, not just $100.

Your boy, BJR > Grindintosecond 11/26/2019 at 14:17

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Color me shocked it even 20% of those 200k+ $100 fully refundable deposits translate to actual sales. Color me further shocked if 30% of that 20% aren’t just youtubers looking for “I ORDERED A CYBERTRUCK (gone sexual?)” clicks.

TheTurbochargedSquirrel > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/26/2019 at 14:21

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I thought it was either $300 or $500. 

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Textured Soy Protein 11/26/2019 at 14:23

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Oh god...that “graffiti” Cybertruck tag is terrible

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > TheTurbochargedSquirrel 11/26/2019 at 14:23

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Nope. I know a guy who drove 4 hours to Dallas to get in line to put down his deposit on the first day, and then proceeded to wait 2 YEARS before he finally got his car (watching plenty of people with no reservation buying one before him).

TheTurbochargedSquirrel > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/26/2019 at 14:38

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The Model 3 launch was quite the dumpster fire. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > TheTurbochargedSquirrel 11/26/2019 at 14:40

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Expecting any different with the CYBERTRUCK?

I can’t believe he’s going to make us all write that out for the next decade. He really is just trolling everyone...

TheTurbochargedSquirrel > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/26/2019 at 14:44

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I expect the same mess but with the added bonus that the production version of the CYBERTRUCK!!1!!1! will also look quite different to the concept they are selling now.

Sampsonite24-Earth's Least Likeliest Hero > Grindintosecond 11/26/2019 at 14:53

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I don't particularly see the pre order figure that impressive. It was only 100 bucks and it's completely refundable when the production vehicle doesn't live up to the concept

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > TheTurbochargedSquirrel 11/26/2019 at 15:03

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Like I’ve said elsewhere, if his real goal was headlines, not sales, he got what he wanted.

Going into conspiracy theory territory, even the broken glass plays into that... He got even more free publicity because the glass broke. Hard to believe they’d do that, but who knows?

I don’t, however, believe they wanted the recent SpaceX explosion. That looked expensive.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 11/26/2019 at 15:08

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He’s just trolling us all. I guarantee that he had a discussion with his marketers and said, “they have to refer to it with the name we call it, so let’s come up with something completely ridiculous!”.

Ever worse than the Mazda Mazda3 or the Ferrari LaFerrari.

It will always be the F70 to me...

Steve in Manhattan > Grindintosecond 11/27/2019 at 16:06

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I love the styling of the Flex - if it had been more fuel-efficient it might have done better. It’s Volvo-esque. 

Grindintosecond > Censored 11/27/2019 at 16:27

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i got a tacoma instead of a similar mileage half ton because i wish to park in places cars park. Ill get my resale value out of it tho from the colorado taco tax. Ridgeline for the same space concious reasons. 

Grindintosecond > Derpwagon 11/27/2019 at 16:29

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And i’m guessing your self worth isnt based on getting online likes for how out there you project yourself through what you drive,wear or do. Cybertruck will inflate all of that.

Censored > Grindintosecond 11/27/2019 at 19:33

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I agree to this point, there are a few lots that I simply can't get my truck into . But ridgelines don’t seem to hold their value nearly as well as tacos, around here anyways.